The Economist asks

Will Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador win the 2018 Mexican presidential election?

Started May 16, 2018 06:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 1 July 2018. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is currently leading in the polls (The Economist, Bloomberg, The Economist).
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the 2018 Mexican presidential with approximately 53% of the vote. This question closed as "Yes, with more than 50% of the vote" and an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, with 50% or more of the vote 39%
Yes, with less than 50% of the vote 61%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 148
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 302
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.108
4.
-0.67
5.
-0.659

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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