The Economist asks
Will Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador win the 2018 Mexican presidential election?
Started
May 16, 2018 06:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 1 July 2018. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is currently leading in the polls (The Economist, Bloomberg, The Economist).
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the 2018 Mexican presidential with approximately 53% of the vote. This question closed as "Yes, with more than 50% of the vote" and an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the 2018 Mexican presidential with approximately 53% of the vote. This question closed as "Yes, with more than 50% of the vote" and an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, with 50% or more of the vote | 39% | |
| Yes, with less than 50% of the vote | 61% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 148 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 302 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
