The Monkey Cage asks

In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws"?

Started Jun 06, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 05, 2018 05:00PM UTC

On 6 March, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California over three so-called "sanctuary laws" by the State of California, Assembly Bill 450, Senate Bill 54, and Assembly Bill 103 (Politico, USA Today, The Sacramento Bee). A preliminary injunction granted that covers part of a law subject to the lawsuit will count as "yes" for that entire law.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. This question closed as "Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only" with an end date of 5 July, 2018 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only 9%
Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only 0%
Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only 1%
Yes, against two or more of the bills 38%
No 52%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.511
2.
-0.349
3.
-0.333
4.
-0.331
5.
-0.278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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