Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?

Started Jun 20, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 02, 2018 05:00PM UTC
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Leading tech companies have seen rapid increases in market capitalization (Financial Times, Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" reported by Bloomberg for Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).  If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.
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This question closed as "Apple" with an end date of 2 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Apple 99%
Amazon 0%
Alphabet 0%
Microsoft 0%
None of the above 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 380
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.826
2.
-0.676
3.
-0.661
4.
-0.653
5.
-0.559

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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