The Monkey Cage asks
How many House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 will be won by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections?
Started
Jul 25, 2018 07:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
There are 25 House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-01, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08 (Center for Politics, NYT, Daily Kos).
This question closed as "Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive" with an end date of 6 November 2018.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
5 seats or less | 0% | |
Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive | 1% | |
Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive | 42% | |
Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive | 55% | |
Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 80 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 188 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |