The Monkey Cage asks

How many House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 will be won by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Jul 25, 2018 07:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

There are 25 House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-01, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08 (Center for Politics, NYT, Daily Kos). This question closed as "Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
5 seats or less 0%
Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive 1%
Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive 42%
Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive 55%
Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 188
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.582008
2.
-0.581081
3.
-0.528084
4.
-0.514606
5.
-0.442233

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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