The Monkey Cage asks
How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?
Started
Jul 25, 2018 07:34PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
There are 13 House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-08, PA-14, and WI-03 (Center for Politics, NYT, Daily Kos).
This question closed as "Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive" with an end date of 6 November 2018.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
1 seat or less | 8% | |
Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive | 85% | |
Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive | 7% | |
Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive | 0% | |
Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 95 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 210 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |