The Monkey Cage asks

How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Jul 25, 2018 07:34PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

There are 13 House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-08, PA-14, and WI-03 (Center for Politics, NYT, Daily Kos). This question closed as "Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
1 seat or less 8%
Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive 85%
Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive 7%
Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive 0%
Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 210
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.122224
2.
-0.121254
3.
-0.114724
4.
-0.114724
5.
-0.113656

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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