Started Dec 22, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. (Foreign Policy, Reuters). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Mosul still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp, even as the Iraqi military seems to be making progress in an effort to retake Ramadi and Kurdish forces have rolled back some of the group's territorial gains in Northern Iraq (NYTimes, Foreign Policy, Guardian, WSJ). Recommended Questions Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1086
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 5795
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.645
3.
-0.644
4.
-0.643
5.
-0.643

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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