Started Dec 22, 2015 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated. The six party talks are a series of negotiations over dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the US (Council on Foreign Relations). In October 2015, leaders from China, South Korea, and Japan agreed to work toward resuming the talks which were last held in 2008 (Financial Times). Recommended Questions Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 606
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 2286
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.013
3.
-0.013
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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