Started Jan 25, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 23, 2019 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

Will voter turnout for the 2019 European Parliament elections set a record low?

Pivotal elections to the European Parliament are scheduled for May 2019, and Brussels is working to increase turnout -- in 2014 the final figure was a record-low 42.61% (Bloomberg, Politico). This question will be suspended the day before the election and closed based on the turnout figures available on the European Parliament website at the time of the first sitting of the newly-elected Parliament; for more information on turnout in past elections see The European Parliament and select "Turnout," "By year," and "European Union." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 May 2019 (Europa).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 16.00%
No 84.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 341
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 651
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.092
2.
-0.09
3.
-0.089
4.
-0.089
5.
-0.085

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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