Will the Supreme Court rule that any part of either North Carolina's or Maryland's congressional district maps is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?

Started Feb 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 27, 2019 03:00PM UTC

In the cases of Rucho v. Common Cause and Lamone v. Benisek, separate district court panels declared congressional district maps in North Carolina and Maryland to be unconstitutional (SCOTUSBlog, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court agreed to hear appeals for these cases, and oral arguments in both are scheduled for 26 March 2019 (The Economist, The Baltimore Sun). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down both decisions in its current term, but if it does not decide at least one case, the question will resolve as no.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2019 (SCOTUS).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.00%
No 50.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 270
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.299
3.
-0.295
4.
-0.294
5.
-0.285

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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