Started Feb 08, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jun 29, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Will the Supreme Court rule that any part of either North Carolina's or Maryland's congressional district maps is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?

In the cases of Rucho v. Common Cause and Lamone v. Benisek, separate district court panels declared congressional district maps in North Carolina and Maryland to be unconstitutional (SCOTUSBlog, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court agreed to hear appeals for these cases, and oral arguments in both are scheduled for 26 March 2019 (The Economist, The Baltimore Sun). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down both decisions in its current term, but if it does not decide at least one case, the question will resolve as no.


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Name Probability
Yes 40%

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