Started Mar 22, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 08, 2019 06:59AM UTC

The Economist ask

What percentage of votes will the African National Congress win in South Africa's next election for the National Assembly?

The African National Congress has been the governing party in South Africa since 1994, and incumbent president Cyril Ramaphosa hopes to consolidate his authority via the upcoming general elections scheduled for 8 May 2019 (The Economist, Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Online). 


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Name Probability
Less than 50.00% 15%
Between 50.00% and 60.00%, inclusive 61%
More than 60.00% 24%

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