Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

Started Jan 21, 2016 03:48PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2016 07:59AM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Hillary Clinton 51%
Martin O’Malley 2%
Bernie Sanders 47%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1718
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 2201
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.426
2.
-0.426
3.
-0.425
4.
-0.418
5.
-0.392

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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