Started Oct 04, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 21, 2020 06:59AM UTC

D.C. Superforecasting Workshop participant tccoleman26 asks:

Between 4 October 2019 and 1 April 2020, will legislation in a U.S. state allowing college athletes to receive financial compensation for their names, images, and/or likenesses become law?

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation in September 2019 that would enable many college student-athletes to receive compensation for the use of the student’s name, image, or likeness, which runs counter to current NCAA rules (LA Times, CBS Sports, Wall Street Journal, Economist). The date a law would take effect and whether a law includes all college athletes are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered to be a state.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 March 2020 (Bleacher Report).

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Correct Answer

Yes

Final Crowd Forecast

5%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

220

Forecast
Count

561

Crowd Brier Score

0.7913


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.679
2.
-0.674
3.
-0.646
4.
-0.646
5.
-0.639