Started Oct 04, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

lekker asks:

Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in three or more fatalities?

Large anti-government protests, which began in June over a proposed extradition bill, have continued in 2019 (Time, NY Times, The Atlantic). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

156

Forecast
Count

636

Crowd Brier Score

0.5978


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.724
2.
-0.724
3.
-0.691
4.
-0.688
5.
-0.685