Started Feb 09, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 24, 2016 05:00PM UTC

Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?

In January 2016, the U.S. imposed new sanctions in response to Iran's October ballistic missile test (Treasury Department, NY Times, BBC). Many sanctions against Iran have been lifted as part of the nuclear deal, but other US sanctions on non-nuclear issues have remained in place (See page 3 of JCPOA FAQ). 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of "Adoption Day" for the nuclear deal. Recommended Questions How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016? (Opinion) Do you approve or disapprove of the Iranian nuclear deal?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30.00%
No 70.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 334
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 718
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.377
2.
-1.339
3.
-1.313
4.
-1.285
5.
-1.223

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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