Started Feb 09, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC

Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?

This question was closed on option C) 'No' on 17 October, 2016. No sources have reported the return of any of the three relevant ambassadors (from Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar) to Iran. In January, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Djibouti, Sudan, and Kuwait recalled their ambassadors to Iran or otherwise broke diplomatic relations after Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran (The National, Reuters, Al Jazeera). If the events occur simultaneously, the question will be scored on option A. 18 October 2016 is the one year anniversary of "Adoption Day" for the nuclear deal. Recommended Questions Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016? Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 100%
Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0%
Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran 0%

No. of
Forecasters

368

Forecast
Count

1309

Crowd Brier Score

0.0212


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059
2.
-0.059
3.
-0.058
4.
-0.055
5.
-0.054

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