Chicago Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 May 2020, will China reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans?

Started Dec 06, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 15, 2020 07:59AM UTC

China has increased import tariffs on U.S. yellow soybeans (also known as yellow soya beans) to 33% as of the launch of this question (USDA, South China Morning Post, Bloomberg, CNBC). Tariff exemptions and waivers would not count toward the resolution of the question.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 February 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 372
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.635
2.
-0.617
3.
-0.601
4.
-0.591
5.
-0.578

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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