Foxes Ask:
Who will be selected as the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at its special party congress?
Closed May 16, 2020 06:59AM UTC
A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February she will step down as CDU party leader later this summer (BBC). Her successor is expected to be selected during a special party congress, scheduled for 25 April 2020 (Deutsche Welle, Foreign Policy).
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NOTE 19 March 2020: As the CDU special party congress has been postponed due to the COVID-19 outbreak, we have extended the closing date of this question to 31 December 2020 (Reuters).
The question closed "No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled" with a closing date of 15 May 2020 (RND.de [in German]).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Armin Laschet | 44% | |
| Friedrich Merz | 33% | |
| Norbert Röttgen | 2% | |
| Someone else | 13% | |
| No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 101 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 278 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
