Started Mar 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC (10 months ago)

&nbspThe Early Warning Project asks

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page.

According to these criteria, Nigeria is already experiencing two episodes of mass killing: one perpetrated by Boko Haram, and another perpetrated by state security forces targeting alleged members or supporters of Boko Haram (Amnesty International). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Nigeria the country second most at risk for a new onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a "yes" answer to this question.

This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog.

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This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Nigeria before the end of 2016 (Early Warning Project).

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Answer was incorrect

Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-1.005
2.
-1.002
3.
-1.001
4.
-0.96
5.
-0.959