Closed Jan 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC (3 months ago)

 The Early Warning Project asks

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page.

According to these criteria, Nigeria is already experiencing two episodes of mass killing: one perpetrated by Boko Haram, and another perpetrated by state security forces targeting alleged members or supporters of Boko Haram (Amnesty International). This question pertains to the risk of a new episode of mass killing. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Nigeria the country second most at risk for a new onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a "yes" answer to this question.

This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog.

Recommended Questions
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?
Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

Name Probability
Yes 7%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In