Started May 01, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2020?

OPEC members have agreed to cut oil production due to decreased demand related to the COVID-19 pandemic (EconomistBBC, Reuters). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC). The March 2020 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 27,772 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in February 2020 (OPEC, see Table 5.8 on page 53 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed when the June data are released, scheduled for July.

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The question closed "More than 21,000 tb/d but less than 24,000 tb/d" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 18,000 tb/d 0%
Between 18,000 tb/d and 21,000 tb/d, inclusive 2%
More than 21,000 tb/d but less than 24,000 tb/d 82%
Between 24,000 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive 16%
More than 27,000 tb/d 0%

No. of
Forecasters

154

Forecast
Count

447

Crowd Brier Score

0.0496


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.088
3.
-0.081
4.
-0.077
5.
-0.075

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