Question 21 of 25 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started May 21, 2020 08:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will there be 12 or more Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?

Chapter 9 filings have been rare since the mechanism was created to allow U.S. municipalities to file for bankruptcy (MuniNet Guide). There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic might create a surge in filings (The Hill, JD Supra). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020. The outcome will be determined using Caseload Statistics Data Tables (F-5A) provided by uscourts.gov (U.S. Courts). For 2019, there were a total of six Chapter 9 bankruptcy filings (U.S. Courts - Report F-5A 31 December 2019, see page 133 of 261 in the file).

Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username