Started May 21, 2020 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will there be 12 or more Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?

Chapter 9 filings have been rare since the mechanism was created to allow U.S. municipalities to file for bankruptcy (MuniNet Guide). There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic might create a surge in filings (The Hill, JD Supra). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020. The outcome will be determined using Caseload Statistics Data Tables (F-5A) provided by uscourts.gov (U.S. Courts). For 2019, there were a total of six Chapter 9 bankruptcy filings (U.S. Courts - Report F-5A 31 December 2019, see page 133 of 261 in the file).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

182

Forecast
Count

565

Crowd Brier Score

0.4567


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.671
2.
-0.665
4.
-0.645
5.
-0.638

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