Foxes ask:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?
Started
May 29, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 15, 2020 06:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 15, 2020 06:30PM UTC
Challenges
Tensions have flared along the disputed border between India and China, with violent clashes reported in early May (Hindustan Times, Time, Washington Post). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 June 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 5.50% | |
No | 94.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 155 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 268 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |