Started Jun 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?

Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Olympic Games, Paralympic Games). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (BBC). Postponement(s) alone would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Olympics only 0%
Yes, the Paralympics only 0%
Yes, both 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 2914
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username