Started Jun 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?

Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Olympic Games, Paralympic Games). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (BBC). Postponement(s) alone would not count.

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NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.

Name Probability
Yes, the Olympics only 0%
Yes, the Paralympics only 0%
Yes, both 8%
No 92%

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