Started Jun 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?

Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Olympic Games, Paralympic Games). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (BBC). Postponement(s) alone would not count.

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NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the Olympics only 0%
Yes, the Paralympics only 0%
Yes, both 1%
No 99%

No. of
Forecasters

1178

Forecast
Count

2914

Crowd Brier Score

0.2079


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.262
2.
-0.262
3.
-0.261
4.
-0.26
5.
-0.26

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