Shack8888, cybermaster98, and Grant-Hummer ask:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?

Started Jul 01, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2020 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,100.29 on 30 June 2020.

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The question closed "Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 September 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down more than 15.0% 0%
Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0% 5%
Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 95%
Up more than 15.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 280
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 1549
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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