Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2020?

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).

This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1698. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 800,000 0%
Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive 21%
More than 950,000 but less than 1,100,000 79%
Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive 0%
More than 1,250,000 0%

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