Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 06:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (ReutersShine.cnCNBCInside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive StatisticsCaam.org.cn [in Chinese], Caam.org.cn [in English], China Daily).

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 2.2 million 6%
Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive 28%
More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million 55%
Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive 11%
More than 4.0 million 0%

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