Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

SE_Meyer asks:

Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?

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Challenges

Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

169

Forecast
Count

407

Crowd Brier Score

0.0023


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005

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