Question 64 of 72 in In the News 2021
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

SE_Meyer asks:

Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?

Tags
Challenges

Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 5%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username