In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?

Started Sep 04, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 05, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags

To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” (Supremecourt.gov). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Lexology, ZDNet). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 April 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 55.00%
No 45.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 226
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.171102
2.
-1.142948
3.
-1.134195
5.
-1.098505

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username