Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many active California fires with 10,000 or more acres burned will be reported by the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 1 October 2020?
Started
Sep 04, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC
Tags
California has already experienced record-setting wildfires in 2020 and more could be on the way (Guardian, Mercury News, NY Times). The outcome will be determined using the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 (LA Times, left side). As of 1 September there are 14 fires with 10,000 or more acres burned.
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The question closed "4 or more" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | |
| 1 | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | |
| 4 or more | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 70 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 155 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
