Started Sep 04, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many active California fires with 10,000 or more acres burned will be reported by the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 1 October 2020?

California has already experienced record-setting wildfires in 2020 and more could be on the way (Guardian, Mercury News, NY Times). The outcome will be determined using the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 (LA Times, left side). As of 1 September there are 14 fires with 10,000 or more acres burned.

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The question closed "4 or more" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 0%
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 or more 100%

No. of
Forecasters

70

Forecast
Count

155

Crowd Brier Score

0.0046


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.002

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