Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).

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Name Probability
Yes 7%

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