Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?

Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (BBC, Washington Post, Fox News, Wall Street Journal). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 434
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
3.
-0.0
4.
-0.0
5.
-0.0

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username