Question 35 of 68 in In the News 2021
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?

A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (BBC, Washington Post, Fox News, Wall Street Journal). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.

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NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea."

Name Probability
Yes 1%

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