Adam Grant asks:
What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).
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The question closed "Less than 2.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.00% | 96% | |
| Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive | 4% | |
| More than 4.00% but less than 6.00% | 0% | |
| Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 8.00% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 291 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 904 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
