Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?

As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).

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The question closed "Less than 2.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.00% 96%
Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive 4%
More than 4.00% but less than 6.00% 0%
Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 8.00% 0%

No. of
Forecasters

291

Forecast
Count

904

Crowd Brier Score

0.3447


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.511
2.
-0.481
3.
-0.378
4.
-0.318
5.
-0.299

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