Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?

Started Apr 19, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Calls for Zuma to be replaced as president have intensified amidst corruption allegations and a surprise ministerial shakeup which spurred further decline in the South African rand (Vox, Africa Report, Guardian, and Bloomberg). In the event that Zuma reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Zuma returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 243
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012754
2.
-0.012675
3.
-0.012519
4.
-0.012519
5.
-0.012091

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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