Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?
On 10 October 2020 while celebrating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, North Korea revealed a ballistic missile estimated to be larger than the Hwasong-15 (38 North, BBC, Arms Control Wonk). The Hwasong-15 is estimated to have a length between 21 and 22.5 meters (CSIS). For the purposes of this question, the length of a launched missile will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimated range is provided, the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. For the purposes of this question, an ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.