Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?

On 10 October 2020 while celebrating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, North Korea revealed a ballistic missile estimated to be larger than the Hwasong-15 (38 North, BBC, Arms Control Wonk). The Hwasong-15 is estimated to have a length between 21 and 22.5 meters (CSIS). For the purposes of this question, the length of a launched missile will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimated range is provided, the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. For the purposes of this question, an ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

142

Forecast
Count

274

Crowd Brier Score

0.0028


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

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