Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?

Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 15, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations (Diplomat, CNN). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 February 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.50%
No 3.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 155
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 430
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.760407
2.
-0.713399
3.
-0.668347
4.
-0.664273
5.
-0.646438

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username