Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 03, 2021 08:15PM UTC

Will Nancy Pelosi be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress?

As hopes for a "blue wave" in the 2020 U.S. elections did not materialize and Democrats have lost several net seats in the House of Representatives, speculation abounds as to whether Speaker Pelosi will continue on in the role (Politico, CBS News, Newsweek). The House will elect its Speaker for the 117th Congress on or about 3 January 2021 (EveryCRSReport.com).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 January 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

99%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

267

Forecast
Count

440

Crowd Brier Score

0.0007


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username