Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?

On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (EconomistAl Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 May 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

98%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

185

Forecast
Count

470

Crowd Brier Score

1.5526


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.519
2.
-1.375
3.
-1.315
4.
-1.315

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