Started Nov 13, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?

On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (EconomistAl Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).

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Name Probability
Yes 96%

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