Started Nov 17, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?

The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country (Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

175

Forecast
Count

461

Crowd Brier Score

0.0217


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03
2.
-0.029
3.
-0.029
4.
-0.028
5.
-0.028

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