Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (Economist). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.

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NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.

Name Probability
Less than 5.0% 0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive 2%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0% 34%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive 44%
More than 8.0% 20%

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