Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?

After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (Economist). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.


The question closed "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5.0% 0%
Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive 1%
More than 6.0% but less than 7.0% 17%
Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive 47%
More than 8.0% 35%

No. of
Forecasters

294

Forecast
Count

951

Crowd Brier Score

0.1759


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.25
2.
-0.233
4.
-0.224
5.
-0.219

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username