Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?

As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (Economist). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (Tesla Q1 2020, Tesla Q2 2020). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "350,000 or more" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 150,000 0%
Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive 0%
More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000 5%
350,000 or more 95%

No. of




Crowd Brier Score


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Tip: Mention someone by typing @username