Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 07, 2021 01:00AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?

Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 (Economist, CNN, Reuters). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed (Peruvian Times).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.

The question closed "Another candidate" with a closing date of 6 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action) 0%
A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress) 0%
A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force) 38%
A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party) 0%
Another candidate 62%
There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021 0%

No. of




Crowd Brier Score


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Tip: Mention someone by typing @username