Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (Economist, IMF - June 2020, World Economic Forum). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report (IMF - October 2020).

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Name Probability
Yes 70%

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