Started Dec 11, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Kinnaj asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?

The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (NY Times, Express, Entertainment Weekly).

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NOTE 7 April 2021: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from "The Winds of Winter."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.315
2.
-0.312
3.
-0.292
4.
-0.292
5.
-0.271

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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