Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?

Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.

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Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

205

Forecast
Count

535

Crowd Brier Score

0.033


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.05
2.
-0.049
4.
-0.046
5.
-0.043

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