Started Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 23, 2021 07:00PM UTC

Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?

Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years (NY Times, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).

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The question closed "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party" with a closing date of 23 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party 100%
Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party 0%
There will not be an election before 1 April 2021 0%

No. of
Forecasters

145

Forecast
Count

371

Crowd Brier Score

0.036


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.089
2.
-0.087
3.
-0.087
5.
-0.087

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