Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

Russia and the U.S. signed the current "New START" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country (Moscow Times). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement (Federation of American Scientists, Newsweek).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 February 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

114

Forecast
Count

257

Crowd Brier Score

0.0022


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

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