The Economist asks:
How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?
Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (Economist, Moscow Times). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (RT, Forbes). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
The question closed "300 seats or more" with a closing date of 19 September 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Fewer than 226 seats||0%|
|Between 226 seats and 299 seats||16%|
|300 seats or more||84%|
|Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||165|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 258|
|Number of Forecasts||545|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|