Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (Economist, Moscow Times). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (RT, Forbes). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 226 seats 1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats 22%
300 seats or more 76%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021 1%

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