Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many U.S. senators will vote to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection?
Started
Feb 11, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 13, 2021 08:39PM UTC
Closed Feb 13, 2021 08:39PM UTC
Tags
On 13 January 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for incitement of insurrection in the wake of the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building (NPR, H.Res.24). The Senate trial began on 9 February 2021 (Time, BBC). If the Senate does not vote on the charge before 1 May 2021, the question will close "Fewer than 51."
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The question closed "Between 56 and 61" with a closing date of 13 February 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 51 | 0% | |
Between 51 and 55 | 19% | |
Between 56 and 61 | 81% | |
Between 62 and 66 | 0% | |
67 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 95 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 178 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |