Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many U.S. senators will vote to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection?

Started Feb 11, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 13, 2021 08:39PM UTC

On 13 January 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for incitement of insurrection in the wake of the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building (NPR, H.Res.24). The Senate trial began on 9 February 2021 (Time, BBC). If the Senate does not vote on the charge before 1 May 2021, the question will close "Fewer than 51."

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The question closed "Between 56 and 61" with a closing date of 13 February 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 51 0%
Between 51 and 55 19%
Between 56 and 61 81%
Between 62 and 66 0%
67 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.10125
2.
-0.10075
3.
-0.09875
4.
-0.09805
5.
-0.09625

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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