Started Feb 11, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 13, 2021 08:39PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many U.S. senators will vote to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection?

On 13 January 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for incitement of insurrection in the wake of the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building (NPR, H.Res.24). The Senate trial began on 9 February 2021 (Time, BBC). If the Senate does not vote on the charge before 1 May 2021, the question will close "Fewer than 51."

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The question closed "Between 56 and 61" with a closing date of 13 February 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 51 0%
Between 51 and 55 19%
Between 56 and 61 81%
Between 62 and 66 0%
67 or more 0%

No. of
Forecasters

95

Forecast
Count

178

Crowd Brier Score

0.0951


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.101
2.
-0.101
3.
-0.099
4.
-0.098
5.
-0.096

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