Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times.) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution).

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NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 154
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 376
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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