Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times.) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution).

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NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.

Name Probability
Yes 3%

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