Maarten and Adam Grant ask:

Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?

Started Feb 16, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" with a closing date of 1 July 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less 1%
Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more 0%
Neither will occur before 1 July 2021 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 543
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1883
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.091
2.
-0.09
3.
-0.09
4.
-0.089
5.
-0.089

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username