Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (Deutsche Welle, Moscow Times). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation [in Russian], Moscow Times).

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Name Probability
Yes 10%

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